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I'm Generation X, what do I need to do?

On that topic I found "The Fourth Turning" very interesting - although I do not subscribe to the conlusions of that book.

Sorry, typing from my phone so this will be short.

Anyone who thinks generational labels and associated stereotypes are meaningless needs to read William Strauss and Neil Howe's excellent book, titled The Fourth Turning. It makes a very well-documented and compelling case that every generation is defined by the events of their era, and they take on the characteristics of one of four archetypes: prophet, nomad, hero and artist.

Their theory is described in detail here: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_the...

Turchin, like I suspected. War and Peace and War is his first book on the subject, which is well worth reading. He's an ethnic Russian in the US, and focuses on US and Russian history; his model explains both countries very well, but he openly admits in the book that it doesn't explain Italy (or Aquitaine), so we know that there are other factors in life.

I'm not convinced that "Turchinian cohesion" is really a good thing, though; it seems to be a way to get people who hate each other to toe the line and work together nonetheless, and he kind of praises how all cohesive societies suppress dissenters...

Another book to read, for those interested in neo-Toynbean searches for underlying patterns: The Fourth Turning, which deals with generational cycles of values. The authors, writing around 1990, expected a high risk of some sort of crisis -- possibly even a large terrorist attack -- somewhere around 2000, and a general atmosphere of crisis that would last about 20 years afterwards. Either their model's pretty good, or they just got lucky; if they followed their own investment advice, I imagine they came out pretty well.

He was probably drawing from the Strauss-Howe generational theory[1], which is more than 20 years old now. He (or you) should have credited the original thinkers for these ideas. Their 1997 book "The Fourth Turning" is considered pseudoscience but nonetheless great food for thought, imho.

Note that the cycle may sometimes be shorter (3 gens) or longer (5). It's not really a theory, more like empirical observation. Unfortunately, it has no predictive power whatsoever, so it's just that, food for thought.

Edit: Interestingly, it came out almost at about the same time as Huttington's "Clash of the Civilizations"[2], and a number of interesting scenarios from Shell[3][4] and the CIA (link?), which notably informed Clinton's push for global democracy — all these studies concurred, at the time, that positive disruption was a plausible scenario.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations

[3]: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-futur...

[4]: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-futur...

I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes) and I couldn't put it down when I read it over the summer. Several people whom I deeply respect recommended this book, including the famous bond trader Jeffrey Gundlach.

After reading the book, it was really no surprise to me when the capital was overrun with rioters. The book convinced me, we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions: extreme wealth inequality, pandemic, desperation, hunger and feeling like one has no personal stake. The rise of China and decline of the United States contributes to another dangerous possible outcome. The tech industry's most recent moves to purge conservatives/libertarians may make our social condition even worse, by isolating rather than including the most desperate people in our society.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-American-Prophecy-Rend...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theo...

Another theory that has been circulating around is "The Fourth Turning" based on a book authors writings. You can find various Youtube videos on this. [1] This describes 80 year cycles that break down into 4 phases / generations. I don't have an opinion on it.

[1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9FT1ObIYLc

Also: "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss and Howe (1997). From the synopsis:

> Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras—or "turnings"—that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. In The Fourth Turning, the authors illustrate these cycles using a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period.

> First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth

There is an important demographic shift happening, and anyone starting a business that rides a large social wave would be wise to pay attention to it.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the younger generation was put down as cynical, slackers, no good, apathetic, criminal, etc. They were seen as too individualistic, not group-oriented enough. The Gen Y generational put-downs are new: too group-oriented, lacking individual initiative, too nice, "coddled", etc. There's underlying truth in both kinds of put-down, even if (of course) they don't apply to every person in each generation. As Gen Y gets older, the optimism, group orientation, and lack of individual initiative will become even more clear. For one thing, they'll seek strong leadership from government. And of course, the changing demographic will both create and destroy business opportunities.

Strauss 7 Howe's books _Generations_ and _The Fourth Turning_ make a lot of interesting observations (and predictions) about this.

I wouldn't bet on the US's longevity. Read Peter Turchin, War and Peace and War (discussed here a week or two ago), particularly noting his part about how multiple imperial peoples can't coexist in a single country...

The Fourth Turning -- on the patterns that generations tend to fall into -- might also be interesting.