Hacker News Books

How does this compare to the authors newer book "Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis" (2015) (which unlike the linked book is available at my local library)

Avoiding reading the news does not address a deeper problem: the way we think can be hijacked by people who know how.

I am reminded of Blaise Pascal's "Pensées" from which I'll try to translate a passage:

"Man is but a reed, the most feeble in nature; but he is a thinking reed. The universe need not entirely arm itself to crush him: a vapor, a drop of water suffices to kill him. But when the universe would crush him, Man would be even more noble than what kills him, because he knows he's dying, and the advantage the universe has on him, the universe knows none of it. Our dignity consists, then, in thought. It is from this that we must elevate ourselves and not from space or time, which we cannot fill. Let us work, then, to think well; this is the principle of morality."

Maybe we could look at it from this perspective. That avoiding the news is avoiding a channel we are aware of but not tackling the way we think makes us vulnerable to the channels we're unaware of that use the same mechanics.

The intelligence community has a body of knowledge on this subject. Richard Heuer and Randolph Pherson's work might interest HN members: "Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis". "Thinking Fast and Slow" has been mentioned here quite often.

Do you have much familiarity with those inner workings and workplace tendencies in the intelligence agencies? What are your thoughts on Richards Heuer's work[0] on empirical methodologies to eliminate as much cognitive bias from analysts' assessments as possible (I've read a few techniques from his most recent book "Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis" but haven't read any of his earlier "Psychology of Intelligence Analysis" book). You mention burden of proof being lower for them than in police work, which might make sense given that it's a field where deception and operational secrecy are practically situational constants, but I guess I haven't gotten that impression from reading his work. I'm curious to hear what went into your conclusions.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richards_Heuer

The book "Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis" by the same author is more recent and goes into details and applications.

They go over many biases and attentional phenomena, tools to prevent or mitigate, visualization techniques to address problems (timelines, etc.) with several examples.

It also goes into explaining the context that practitioners evolve in a context where information can be scarce, contradictory either by happenstance or by design by actors who want to confuse.

Here's a RAND report titled "Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community".

- [0]: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/...