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paulgbonJune 3, 2021

> I wish there was some rulebook on how to spot trends that will be short-lived.

It's not exactly a rulebook, but if you read enough of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, there are some patterns that recur over and over. It was written 180 years ago, but it's amazing how little the psychology behind manias has changed.

In particular, a good golden rule is to not follow people into an investment that you don't understand because you are blinded by greed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusion...

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